Each season, there’s always one College Football team that seems to come out of nowhere and have a major impact on their conference and the season. Everyone has a name for them: sleepers, darkhorse candidates, below the radar teams, surprise picks or BCS party crashers, to name a few. Most teams who fall into this category have a few things in common:
1. A veteran quarterback
2. Large number of returning starters
3. Favorable schedule
4. Luck
With that in mind, here’s a couple of teams that could “sleep” their way into a BCS game this season.
ACC: North Carolina State. 15 starters are back (8 offense, 7 defense) from the 6-7 team that lost four games by 10 points or less a year ago. All-ACC quarterback Russell Wilson is ready for his sophomore campaign, saying he feels ten times more comfortable than last season. A rematch with South Carolina (34-0 loss a year ago) kicks off the schedule and Clemson (27-9 victors against the Wolfpack last season) also travels to Raleigh. Miami rotates off the schedule (replaced by Virginia Tech) and trips to Tallahassee and Blacksburg should define whether this is a good – or great – season.
Big East: South Florida. When the conference doesn’t have a clear cut favorite, it’s pretty hard to designate a sleeper. With that in mind, though, the Bulls look like they could make their first entrance into the BCS. USF is no stranger to the spotlight, though. Remember, they were ranked as high as #2 in the county just two years ago before a barrage of injuries and late losses took the luster off a great start. 17 starters are back for the Bulls, including QB Matt Groethe who returns for what seems like his tenth season. As for the schedule, the Bulls play all three conference favorites (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and West Virginia) in 15 days . USF is off the week before they play the Bearcats (a Thursday night game on ESPN), which gives them two extra days for the game at Pittsburgh the following weekend. They close out the three game stretch six days later by hosting the Mountaineers. Don’t be surprised to see the youngest program in the Big East make a big splash by reaching a BCS game this season.
Big Ten: Iowa. Ricky Stanzi is back under center and eight starters return to spearhead the nasty defense that knocked Penn State out of the BCS Championship picture last season. The Hawkeyes will hit the road to take on Ohio State and Penn State, but the rest of the schedule looks pretty manageable with Arizona, Michigan and Indiana all traveling to Iowa City. As for the game against the Buckeyes, they couldn’t have timed it any better – they travel to Columbus on November 14th – the week after the league favorite Buckeyes and Nittany Lions clash in Happy Valley. If a few things break right for the Hawkeyes, they’ll definitely be living in their own version of Happy Valley.
Big XII: Nebraska. The Cornhuskers might have the easiest schedule of anyone on this page. Texas is off of the regular season schedule. The two biggest hurdles are trips to Virginia Tech on September 19th and Oklahoma, who travels to Lincoln on November 7th. The biggest concern for the Red Sea is the quarterback position, where Zac Lee is the third starter in three years and has virtually zero experience. He’ll get some early confidence with his experienced offensive line (four of five starters return) and season-opening games versus Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State before traveling to take on the Hokies. The good news is the Cornhuskers are in prime position to make the Big XII Title Game in Dallas so even a hiccup during the season can still lead to the Fiesta Bowl.
Pac-10: Oregon State. The Beavers have one of the most talented returning backfields in College Football, with QB Lyle Moevao and RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Mike Riley’s team returns 7 starters on offense from the unit that defeated USC last season – and later won their bowl game against Pitt 3-0. The downside? Only three starters are back on defense. Even worse? The schedule is brutal with road trips to the three Pac-10 favorites, USC, Cal and Oregon. OSU will need a lot of #4 above to survive this and win the Pac-10. Remember this, though. The Beavers opened 2008 by losing at Stanford and were one win away from winning the conference last season. Anything can happen.
SEC: LSU. It seems ridiculous to consider a team that has won two BCS National Championships in the past six years as a sleeper team, but Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida seem to be everyone’s top picks for the league. In fact, nearly every magazine and publication has LSU picked to finish third – at best. They return quarterbacks Jarrett Lee, who was sporadic at times in 2008 and Jordan Jefferson, who torched Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to close out the season. John Chavis from Tennessee heads down to the Bayou to handle the defense, which should be much improved despite losing five starters from last season with infusion from one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. Finally, the schedule is as good as it gets in the SEC. Florida, Auburn and Arkansas all come to Death Valley. Road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss follow lightweight opponents (Tulane and Louisiana Tech, respectively). With Les Miles running the show, don’t be surprised if these Tigers make it to Atlanta.
That leaves us with luck, the hardest thing to quantify for coaches, players, fans and bloggers. With that in mind, though, allow me to leave you with a quote from Thomas Jefferson, “I’m a great believe in luck – and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.”
