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October 24th College Football Picks

Florida at Mississippi State: Gators head coach Urban Meyer this week stated that even though his team looks good on paper “we still don’t feel like we’re operating at the highest level of efficiency.” Mississippi State seems to help teams with that problem. It’s a dangerous game, though,...

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Updated 2009-2010 BCS and Bowl Projections after Week 13

Posted by Mr. BCS | Posted in Uncategorized | Posted on 29-11-2009

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Our complete Bowl Projections, along with those from our friends at ESPN and CBS Sportsline are now updated.

The Biggest Question left to answer?

Who will be “The Biggest Loser” on Saturday night after the SEC Championship – Florida or Alabama.

We believe it will be Florida emerging victorious.  CBS agrees.  Mark Schlabach from ESPN says Alabama will cause some alligator tears.

Either way, it should be a great one between #1 Florida and #2 Alabama.

Nebraska could cause problems for the Texas Longhorns, who will earn a spot opposite the SEC Champion in the BCS Championship Game with a win.  If the Longhorns lose, can TCU, Cincinnati or Boise State earn a place in the title game?

Surely Texas will roll…..but that’s what keeps this game exciting.

Here’s our current picks:

BCS National Championship: Florida vs. Texas

FedEx Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Iowa vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Need to know when your team is playing?  Here’s the complete BCS and college football bowl schedule.

Who will play in the BCS National Championship Game on January 7th in Pasadena?

Who do you think will play in the BCS National Championship Game on January 7th in Pasadena?

Updated BCS and Bowl Projections after College Football’s 5th weekend

Posted by Mr. BCS | Posted in Uncategorized | Posted on 04-10-2009

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Updated October 4th, 2009.

The latest College Football bowl projections for the 2010 BCS bowl games and the 29 other bowls are now updated for MrBCS.com, ESPN and CBS Sportsline.

Significant changes include the following:

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach now projects Alabama to win the SEC Championship and play for the 2010 BCS National Championship.

Oklahoma is no longer projected to earn a BCS berth.

ESPN no longer projects Iowa to earn a BCS bid, but CBS now believes the Hawkeyes will make the FedEx Orange Bowl.

All three services currently agree on the following league champions.

Big East: Cincinnati

Big XII: Texas, who Mr.BCS and CBS forecast will make the 2010 BCS National Championship Game.

Here’s the complete list of predictions for MrBCS.com

BCS National Championship Game: Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Ohio State

FedEx Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Boise State

We also have the complete schedule for 2009-2010 College Football Bowl Games.

What are some of your predictions for the Bowl Games after the first five weeks of the college football season?

Ten things we learned over the College Football weekend

Posted by Mr. BCS | Posted in BCS Predictions, Projections and Analysis | Posted on 07-09-2009

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Well, the opening frame of the College Football season is nearly in the books (FSU-Miami and Cincinnati-Rutgers) play tonight and we’ve already had a number of learnings about the 2009 campaign. Here’s ten of mine.

1. The ACC still has a credibility problem. This is not how Atlantic Coast Conference commissioner John Swofford envisioned the start of the season. The best chance to have a team play for the BCS National Championship, Virginia Tech, was upended in the Georgia Dome by Alabama 34-24. Memo to ACC teams: When the Atlanta Sports Council calls about playing in the Dome to kick off the season and you hear the word “Alabama”, hang up the phone. It’s the second year in a row the league favorite has been handled by the Crimson Tide. Unfortunately for the ACC, this wasn’t the worst part of the weekend as the league failed to register any significant win in non-conference play and left many scratching their heads in disbelief. South Carolina held NC State without a touchdown in a 7-3 win. Georgia Tech, Boston College and North Carolina all won against FCS (Division I-AA) opponents. Wake Forest fell to Baylor, which is understandable. Richmond beat Duke 24-16. William & Mary handled Virginia 26-14. The only team to win against an FBS (I-A) foe was Clemson who defeated Middle Tennessee State 37-14.

2. WAC, MWC do not have a credibility issue (at least at the top of the league). In the Mountain West Conference. BYU defeated Oklahoma with a winning touchdown with just over three minutes remaining in the game. Colorado State defeated Colorado. San Diego State led UCLA for much of the game before the Bruins pulled away late. In the WAC, Boise State took care of Oregon. Louisiana Tech hung tough with Auburn for a half, but Nevada inexplicably failed to score in a 35-0 loss to Notre Dame, a game several pundits thought they could win. Overall, a big statement for the non-BCS conferences, who look even stronger than before at securing a BCS bid.

3. BYU could play for National Title. I wouldn’t have believed this at the start of the season and still don’t believe it will happen, but it could. Give credit to Bronco Mendenhall who has said his team doesn’t just want to make a BCS game, they want to compete for BCS National Championships. The Cougars have the schedule as well, with games against #19 Florida State (September 19th), #17 TCU (October 24th) and #18 Utah (November 28th) to go with their win over the Sooners. One thing to remember, the Seminoles, Horned Frogs and Utes all must make the trip to Provo.

4. Boise State’s biggest obstacle to a BCS berth could be BYU. Should the Cougars go undefeated, they are guaranteed a spot in a BCS game. Unfortunately for the Boise State Broncos, they could be on the outside looking in depending on the rankings. Remember, the rules state that two teams from the non-BCS conferences can receive a berth in BCS games provided they meet the eligibility requirements. Let’s be honest, though. If you were in charge of a BCS bowl game, would you choose a second team from the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-10, etc. or would you choose Boise State. Chris Petersen and company need the Broncos to lose at least once along the way.

5. Boise State’s win over Oregon could be diminished by the fight. Admit it. When you hear Boise State-Oregon, the first thing that pops into your mind isn’t the Broncos 19-8 victory. It’s the image of LeGarrette Blount punching Byron Hout and the subsequent year-long suspension. This could minimize the impact of the victory if it comes down to Boise State and another non-BCS squad making the BCS.

6. The Road to the BCS National Championship will run through the SEC (again). We all knew Florida was going to be good, but Alabama was down right dominating in the 34-24 win against Virginia Tech, where they held the Hokies to fewer than 200 yards of total offense. Ole Miss pasted Memphis 45-14. Tennessee will get tested this week when UCLA comes to town. Georgia looked good for a half in a 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State, while Auburn was impressive in the second half of their 37-13 win over Louisiana Tech. If they don’t knock each other off along the way, look for the SEC to fill half of the dance card for the BCS National Championship game in Pasadena.

7. Oklahoma State for real. All of the media in the Southeast – and most of the national press – expected Georgia to walk into Stillwater with a new backfield and walk away with a victory. Dez Bryant and company had other plans and showed they will be a significant factor in the Big XII South this season. The October 31st game when the Cowboys host the Texas Longhorns just got that much bigger.

8. Notre Dame and Michigan get out of the blocks. Michigan has lost its last two home openers and Coach Rich Rodriguez has been in the headlines recently for all the wrong reasons. Notre Dame has underachieved for the past two seasons, leaving Charlie Weis on the coaching hot seat. Both had successful days at the office on Saturday. The Fighting Irish pounded WAC power Nevada 35-0, while the Wolverines beat Western Michigan 31-7. Neither will have long to celebrate, though. Both teams will look to go 2-0 – only one will – when the Notre Dame and Michigan battle it out on Saturday.

9. Overall, a good day for new coaches. Lane Kiffin finally got people talking about something other than him with a big win Saturday. Ditto for Gene Chizik at Auburn. Other new head coaches with notable wins/showings included: Frank Spaziani, whose Boston College Eagles shutout Northeastern. Syracuse and head boss Doug Marrone pushed Minnesota to the wire in Greg Paulus’ first game at QB. Bill Snyder returned to Kansas State and picked up a victory, as did Paul Rhoads, who took over for Chizik at Iowa State. In the only matchup of new head coaches, Purdue and Danny Hope outlasted Toledo and Tim Beckman 52-31. San Diego State coach Brady Hoke had his team in control for much of the game against UCLA before falling in the second half and Steve Sarkisian, who has breathed life back into the Washington Husky football program, came close to their first win since 2007. They certainly didn’t look like a team that had lost 14 straight as they tested LSU in a 31-23 defeat. The biggest loser on opening weekend was clearly Oregon coach Chip Kelly, whose team looked punchless in a 19-8 loss to Boise State before throwing punches at the end of the game.

10. Cal, themselves only obstacle for USC. Unless Oregon can get it turned around quickly, it looks like Cal, a 52-13 victor over Maryland, and the USC Trojans will be the class of the Pac-10 this season. Pete Carroll and company should dispatch Ohio State over the weekend and both the Trojans and Bears will remain undefeated until they battle it out in Berkeley on October 3rd. One thing to consider is USC hasn’t lost a regular season game out of conference in nearly seven years, since a 2002 loss to Kansas State. USC’s only challenge this season is Cal – and themselves. Can they overcome where they have struggled the past few seasons? We shall see.

What about you? Did you have any takeaways after watching this weekend’s action?

Sleeper candidates by conference

Posted by Mr. BCS | Posted in BCS Predictions, Projections and Analysis, Games to Watch | Posted on 31-08-2009

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Each season, there’s always one College Football team that seems to come out of nowhere and have a major impact on their conference and the season. Everyone has a name for them: sleepers, darkhorse candidates, below the radar teams, surprise picks or BCS party crashers, to name a few. Most teams who fall into this category have a few things in common:

1. A veteran quarterback

2. Large number of returning starters

3. Favorable schedule

4. Luck

With that in mind, here’s a couple of teams that could “sleep” their way into a BCS game this season.

ACC: North Carolina State. 15 starters are back (8 offense, 7 defense) from the 6-7 team that lost four games by 10 points or less a year ago. All-ACC quarterback Russell Wilson is ready for his sophomore campaign, saying he feels ten times more comfortable than last season. A rematch with South Carolina (34-0 loss a year ago) kicks off the schedule and Clemson (27-9 victors against the Wolfpack last season) also travels to Raleigh. Miami rotates off the schedule (replaced by Virginia Tech) and trips to Tallahassee and Blacksburg should define whether this is a good – or great – season.

Big East: South Florida. When the conference doesn’t have a clear cut favorite, it’s pretty hard to designate a sleeper. With that in mind, though, the Bulls look like they could make their first entrance into the BCS. USF is no stranger to the spotlight, though. Remember, they were ranked as high as #2 in the county just two years ago before a barrage of injuries and late losses took the luster off a great start. 17 starters are back for the Bulls, including QB Matt Groethe who returns for what seems like his tenth season. As for the schedule, the Bulls play all three conference favorites (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and West Virginia) in 15 days .  USF is off the week before they play the Bearcats (a Thursday night game on ESPN), which gives them two extra days for the game at Pittsburgh the following weekend.  They close out the three game stretch six days later by hosting the Mountaineers.  Don’t be surprised to see the youngest program in the Big East make a big splash by reaching a BCS game this season.

Big Ten: Iowa. Ricky Stanzi is back under center and eight starters return to spearhead the nasty defense that knocked Penn State out of the BCS Championship picture last season. The Hawkeyes will hit the road to take on Ohio State and Penn State, but the rest of the schedule looks pretty manageable with Arizona, Michigan and Indiana all traveling to Iowa City. As for the game against the Buckeyes, they couldn’t have timed it any better – they travel to Columbus on November 14th – the week after the league favorite Buckeyes and Nittany Lions clash in Happy Valley. If a few things break right for the Hawkeyes, they’ll definitely be living in their own version of Happy Valley.

Big XII: Nebraska. The Cornhuskers might have the easiest schedule of anyone on this page. Texas is off of the regular season schedule. The two biggest hurdles are trips to Virginia Tech on September 19th and Oklahoma, who travels to Lincoln on November 7th. The biggest concern for the Red Sea is the quarterback position, where Zac Lee is the third starter in three years and has virtually zero experience. He’ll get some early confidence with his experienced offensive line (four of five starters return) and season-opening games versus Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State before traveling to take on the Hokies. The good news is the Cornhuskers are in prime position to make the Big XII Title Game in Dallas so even a hiccup during the season can still lead to the Fiesta Bowl.

Pac-10: Oregon State. The Beavers have one of the most talented returning backfields in College Football, with QB Lyle Moevao and RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Mike Riley’s team returns 7 starters on offense from the unit that defeated USC last season – and later won their bowl game against Pitt 3-0. The downside? Only three starters are back on defense. Even worse? The schedule is brutal with road trips to the three Pac-10 favorites, USC, Cal and Oregon. OSU will need a lot of #4 above to survive this and win the Pac-10. Remember this, though. The Beavers opened 2008 by losing at Stanford and were one win away from winning the conference last season. Anything can happen.

SEC: LSU. It seems ridiculous to consider a team that has won two BCS National Championships in the past six years as a sleeper team, but Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida seem to be everyone’s top picks for the league. In fact, nearly every magazine and publication has LSU picked to finish third – at best. They return quarterbacks Jarrett Lee, who was sporadic at times in 2008 and Jordan Jefferson, who torched Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to close out the season. John Chavis from Tennessee heads down to the Bayou to handle the defense, which should be much improved despite losing five starters from last season with infusion from one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. Finally, the schedule is as good as it gets in the SEC. Florida, Auburn and Arkansas all come to Death Valley. Road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss follow lightweight opponents (Tulane and Louisiana Tech, respectively). With Les Miles running the show, don’t be surprised if these Tigers make it to Atlanta.

That leaves us with luck, the hardest thing to quantify for coaches, players, fans and bloggers. With that in mind, though, allow me to leave you with a quote from Thomas Jefferson, “I’m a great believe in luck – and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.”